BTC weiter Long oder doch noch ein weiteres Tief

An ABCD pattern has numerical bandwidths that state that the A-C leg may run or correct from 0.618 to 88.6. The B-D leg may range from 1.278 to 1.618. You will later realize that an ABCD in the 70 range is less successful than in the 60 or 80 range of bandwidth. Especially at the beginning, it often happens that you draw an “unclean ABCD,” which in reality was an X-ABCD. But more on this in a separate article.

Superordinate ABCD Pattern with an intra-pattern (green)
Superordinate ABCD Pattern with an intra-pattern (green)

In the past, these patterns were worked out with the Fibonacci, but this was quite cumbersome and made the chart confusing due to the many Fibonaccis used. This tool only shows the Fibonacci ratio that corrected the A-axis.

The topic of shrinking compensation for buying and holding bonds came up at the Milken Global Institute Conference last week. For instance, Jean Hsu, managing investment director of private debt at CalPERS, said the pension firm is growing its exposure to non-public assets to 30-40% of its portfolio from 20% previously.

How to find price targets

To derive short targets from a complete ABCD pattern, use a Fibonacci again and draw it from A to D. Generally speaking, these values are relevant.

  • Target 1 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level
  • Target 2 at the 0.618 Fibonacci level
  • Rebound 13 at the 0.13 Fibonacci level
  • Rebound 127 at the 1.272 Fibonacci level
  • Rebound 161 at the 1.618 Fibonacci level
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To derive short targets from a complete ABCD pattern, use a Fibonacci again and draw it from A to D. Generally speaking, these values are relevant.

Superordinate ABCD Pattern with an intra-pattern (green)
Superordinate ABCD Pattern with an intra-pattern (green)

We divide the patterns according to their meaning:

Formations that every trader should know

  • Superordinate pattern (blue pattern in our example)
  • Subordinate patterns (red pattern in our example)
  • Intra pattern (yellow pattern in our example)

Let's look at the yellow intra pattern in our example again. The red pattern has made it rather unlikely that the yellow intra pattern will reach its rebound 1.618. The stop is set with some room for possible price noise above the 1.618 or even 1.67 Fibonacci levels.

Professionals in the MTC pattern also refine their entries by breaking down the timeframes. For example, in the area of the blue pattern point D, there is usually no pattern in the 1-15 minute chart. If you choose to enter with the stop loss setup already presented in the very small timeframe and let the trades run out into the larger pattern, this results in far above-average risk/reward ratios. Appropriate money and position management are also important. The whole trading system aims to work out so-called Hedgeable entries, which means that the trader quickly moves his stop to the entry-level.

Questions and suggestions are welcome in the comments.

Here, you can find a practical example from Bitcoin_: https://takeprofit.com/posts/bitcoin-abcd-ra1-15?via=mustermann84

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Comments
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Oct 23, 2024
Hura is well-known as a member of Magnum Photos, and has self-published numerous photobooks under his imprint Ugly Dog. These projects tend to explore personal relationships, his position in the world and the broader socio-political contexts of his subjects. His recent urge to move away from photography was fuelled by a chain of traumatic events in his personal life. The artist suffered from lung damage induced by COVID-19, experienced a sudden death in his family, and his father was diagnosed with a serious illness.

On top of that, Hura was becoming, in his words, “tired of photography.” In June 2022, he started drawing and experienced a tenderness in the act of sculpting an image into existence. “I realized I’d hit a roadblock with photography,” he reflects. “Apart from my own numbness, we were working in a world with so much censorship, for example. Drawing and the softness of the pastels kind of softens away that violence. A photograph can hold a fact, or evidence. A drawing can also tell the truth, in a different way.”
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